Future of work: Are we ready for tomorrow?

In 1959 the American inventor, Charles Kettering, declared:

The world hates change. Yet it is the only thing that has brought progress.

However, it is not change that people don't like: it is the uncertainty that it brings. And there is plenty of uncertainty in the rapidly changing world of work, which is leading us to ask ourselves:

• Will remote work fundamentally alter how we work together?

• Will we be managed by AI-powered robots?

• Will the 'platformisation' of work lead to a deterioration in working conditions?

• Will all 'green' jobs be good jobs?

The simple answer is that there is no one future of work for all jobs – policymakers will have their work cut out to ensure that remote and platform working, artificial intelligence and climate change policies will benefit, not disadvantage, workers.

Will remote work make us lonely?

The fact is that telework increases the incidence of working long hours and working more than contractually required. However, telework can also offer many benefits – such as improved work-life balance – provided that the right policies are in place.

Almost 39% of dependent employment in the EU can potentially be done remotely – and this share is likely to increase. In 2021, 60% of workers said they would like to work from home at least some of the time. The main reason for this is the promise of more flexible working time and a better work-life balance; however, there may be a price to pay for this.

As boundaries between work and personal life become increasingly blurry, teleworkers are more likely to report stressors such as work-life interference and working in free time. A recent investigation by Eurofound shows that over 80% of workers surveyed received work-related communications outside their contractual working hours during a typical working week.

Telework can also negatively affect workers’ well being. Compared to those working from an employer’s premises, teleworkers are more likely to suffer from headaches and eyestrain and to work while sick. And while they may not be as exposed to adverse social behaviour or emotional demands as their in-office counterparts, teleworkers’ psychosocial well-being can be at risk as social interaction at the workplace is replaced by long, lonely hours in front of a screen at home.

While working time flexibility and task autonomy are more likely to be available to teleworkers than those working from an employer’s premises, the downsides of telework are mainly associated with an ‘always-on’ culture enabled by the same technologies that make remote work possible.

Company policies that establish a ‘right to disconnect’ can make a difference, as additional hours worked due to being contacted are more likely to have been agreed in advance and compensated.

Will robots take my job?

The fact is that robotic technology is now a permanent and productive part of the workplace. But not all jobs will be automated away.

Advanced robotic systems and applications are a source of disruption in workplaces – but ‘disruption’ is not necessarily a bad thing. Thanks to latest state-of-the-art sensors and enhanced functionalities, human-robot interaction is safer than ever and enabling even more efficient and effective collaboration.

Why do companies use robotic technologies? The high cost of labour and difficulties in recruiting staff are two of the main reasons. Increased competitiveness and productivity gains are other driving factors behind robot adoption. So, are doomsday scenarios of massive job losses due to automation justified?

In reality, organisations tend to take a conservative stance to technology adoption, relying on proven business cases. In case studies conducted by Eurofound, robotic technologies primarily automated manual and routine tasks, but they did not eradicate entire job profiles. They clearly have a positive impact on the physical environment. By taking over repetitive or physically demanding tasks, they help reduce physical strain and lower the risks of injuries or accidents.

The impact on workers’ ability to take decisions is more mixed. While robotic technology can restrict a person’s freedom in the way they perform their job, this can be avoided if it is used as a discretionary tool that complements work. Some robotic systems – such as those implemented in warehouses – tend to restrict social interaction. The changes brought about by autonomous or semi-autonomous advanced robotics in workplaces requires thoughtful consideration and proactive management to ensure a positive impact for both businesses and workers.

Will platform work erode our working conditions?

The fact is that platform work presents some significant issues regarding workers’ employment status and opaque algorithmic management systems; however, platform work is still rather limited in reach.

The rise of the platform economy is another disrupting force for European labour markets. Platform work entails using an online platform to connect an organisation or individual with another organisation or individual to solve problems or to provide services in exchange for payment. To establish this connection, an algorithm is used. The result is not a continuous employment relationship but the performance of individual tasks or projects, often micro in size.

There are concerns that these management practices are increasingly used in the broader economy, leading to an increase in algorithmic management and a widespread – even global – division of tasks, performed by workers who are no longer employees of a company but are self-employed.

However, while platforms are expanding their reach and diversifying into novel business models, the phenomenon is still rather limited: only about 1.4% of workers derive more than 50% of their income from platform work.

Platform work remains a heterogeneous phenomenon, with tasks being performed online or on location, requiring low or high levels of skills, giving the client or the service provider the power to select. The common denominator is that platform work provides easier access to the labour market, the flexibility to organise work and access to a large client base. Disadvantages include the risk of skills underutilisation and deskilling, poor career prospects and lack of autonomy.

However, the biggest bone of contention is the employment status of platform workers. If there is a relationship of dependence with the platform, a worker should not be classified as an independent contractor. Recent Eurofound research established that only around 6% of platform workers obtain unemployment benefit coverage through a platform that they work for. This would indicate that they hold employee status. Most platform workers, however, do not have coverage or they obtain it through another job.

Another major concern is the lack of transparency relating to algorithmic management systems. Although these systems are regularly used to allocate and review tasks and to assess performance, platform workers often have little or no information about the systems in use, the type of decisions they take or support, or the grounds for decisions that influence workers’ engagement with the platform.

Ensuring that the employment status of people working through platforms is correctly classified and increasing the transparency of algorithms are two of the core components of the proposed Platform Work Directive.

Will every green job be a good job?

The fact is that the green transition will not automatically lead to better jobs. Strategic policy intervention will be needed to ensure job quality into the future.

Climate change is set to have a profound impact not only on our living conditions, but also on Europe’s labour markets, working conditions and job quality. One issue is the direct impact of climate change on the work environment and working conditions. Unsurprisingly, workers in agriculture, forestry, fisheries and construction – all sectors characterised by a high degree of outdoor activity – are at greatest risk. These workers feel the direct impact of heatwaves, adverse weather events and the increased risk of vector-borne diseases.

Job loss due to climate mitigation policies is another issue. Restructuring and shutting down industries that contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions could destroy well-paid, secure jobs. While the importance of alternative job creation ensuring quality jobs is often a topic of discussion, it is generally assumed that such jobs will be of a high quality – specific assessments or measures outlining how this can be ensured are a rarity. Will jobs change for the better following the greening of our economies?

Greening policies will transform many jobs but not all jobs. Eurofound research shows the green transition will have a direct impact on 40% of workers in the EU. This is because of increased demand for their occupation, the need for enhanced skills or the emergence of new occupational profiles.

Not all of these jobs will be good jobs. Jobs in the ‘new and emerging occupations’ category provide the best conditions: more than 80% of workers in this category are in high-quality jobs. They have good access to resources and low levels of exposure to job demands that cause strain. The picture is not as positive for workers in occupations for which there is increased demand because of greening policies. These are often ‘strained jobs’ because workers have limited access to resources and face many demands. Almost 40% of workers in these occupations feel that work is putting their health and safety at risk.

The green transition will not automatically lead to better jobs. The levelling up of job quality – as envisaged by the European Pillar of Social Rights – must therefore become an integral part of climate change policies.

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