What just happened? COVID-19 lockdowns and change in the labour market
Published: 19 October 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic closed or limited many economic activities in 2020, with far-reaching impacts on the labour market. Employment losses at the outset of the pandemic were sharper than those experienced during the global financial crisis. Even greater declines in hours worked arose as a result of the widespread state-supported furloughing of workers. The physical distancing policies of governments led to another significant and largely ad hoc adjustment – the shift to mass remote working for those workers whose jobs allowed it.
This report describes the employment and working time developments by sector and occupation through the first year of the crisis. It explores which categories of workers were most affected – primarily temporary workers, the young and low-paid women. It also assesses the extent to which remote working served as a buffer during the crisis, preserving jobs that might otherwise have been lost.
Employment fell most sharply early in the pandemic in the EU, with over five million fewer jobs than a year earlier. Temporary workers were disproportionately affected by the crisis, accounting for over three-quarters of net job losses in the EU27 during 2020. In terms of demographic group, low-paid women and younger workers were the biggest losers, suffering the sharpest employment declines during the early, most severe period of the pandemic.
Rather than a fall in the EU’s employment headcount, the peak of the pandemic saw an increase in the share of employed workers not working. These ‘furloughed’ workers accounted for around two-thirds of the decline in hours worked at the height of the crisis. State intervention and fiscal support proved crucial to protecting economies and labour markets in the face of this large, unanticipated shock.
The sectoral impact of the crisis was uneven and shaped largely by government lockdowns and social distancing measures. High social interaction, non-teleworkable jobs in sectors such as hotels, sales, restaurants and accommodation experienced the biggest declines in hours worked. Even sectors identified as essential across the Member States saw working hours drop. Conversely, jobs in knowledge-intensive services grew during the crisis as these sectors rushed to transform or digitalise work processes in response to social distancing measures and higher levels of remote work.
The most vulnerable workers in the pre-pandemic labour market experienced worsening socioeconomic conditions during the crisis. It will be critical in the recovery phase for policy makers to reflect on how more inclusive social protection schemes can serve as a buffer against an intermittent job recovery. Robust public and social partner support will also be required as more vulnerable workers face greater challenges in adjusting to the digital and green transition.
The share of workers working from home during the pandemic was many times higher than those who did so regularly before the COVID-19 crisis. Live survey sources estimate 20–60%, and official European Union Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) data point to more modest increases, with 21% of workers working from home at least some of the time in 2020. These figures are still lower than the overall teleworkable share of employment in the EU27, which is estimated at 37%.
The executive summary for this publication is available in PDF format.
This section provides information on the data contained in this publication.
The report contains the following tables and figures.
List of tables
Table 1: Changes in employment levels, weekly hours worked and share of employees temporarily absent from work, year on year by quarter, EU Member States, 2019–2020
Table 2: Change in employment levels, weekly hours worked and share of employees temporarily absent from work, year on year by quarter, by age and gender, EU27, 2019–2020
Table 3: Changes in employment (%), year on year, by gender and sector, EU27, 2019–2020
Table 4: Top three jobs with biggest employment losses, by gender, EU27, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Table 5: Employment change by sectoral category (%), EU Member States, 2019–2020
Table 6: Relative change in weekly hours worked (%), year on year, by sectoral category, EU Member States, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Table 7: Relative employment change (%), by employment contract and sectoral category, EU Member States, Q4 2019–Q4 2020
Table 8: Proportion of female employment in sectoral categories (%), EU Member States, 2019
Table 9: Change in female employment across sectoral categories (%), EU Member States, Q4 2019–Q4 2020
Table 10: Main broad occupational employment trends, year-on-year shifts (%) by quarter, EU27, 2019–2020
Table A1: Values of the technical teleworkability and social interaction indices for ISCO-08 three-digit occupation groups
Table A2: Classification of sectors during lockdown, based on Fana et al (2020a)
List of figures
Figure 1: Actual and trend estimate of the employment level (millions), EU27, 2019–2020
Figure 2: Changes in unemployment, employment and inactivity rates (percentage points), year-on-year comparison by quarter, EU27 and the US, 2019–2020
Figure 3: Total number of jobs supported by government measures (millions), by month, EU27, 2020
Figure 4: Transitions in labour market status (millions), EU27, Q3 2020–Q4 2020
Figure 5: Changes in labour market slack (percentage points), EU27, 2019–2020
Figure 6: Number of temporary lay-offs (millions), by quarter, EU27, 2019–2020
Figure 7: Temporary employees as a proportion of the total number of employees (%), EU Member States, 2018–2020
Figure 8: Employment change (%), by employment contract, EU Member States, Q4 2019–Q4 2020
Figure 9: Change in employment levels and hours worked (%), by employment contract and self-employment, EU27, 2019–2020
Figure 10: Employment shifts (thousands), year on year, by job–wage quintile and gender, EU27, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Figure 11: Employment shifts (thousands), year on year, by job–wage quintile and broad sector, EU27, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Figure 12: Change in number of workers temporarily absent from work (furloughed) (thousands), year on year, by job–wage quintile and gender, EU27, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Figure 13: Announced restructuring job loss, according to whether or not COVID-19 was cited explicitly as a reason, and announced restructuring job creation, EU27 and Norway, Q1 2020–Q1 2021
Figure 14: Sectoral breakdown of announced job loss (%), according to whether or not COVID-19 was cited explicitly as a reason, EU27 and Norway, March 2020–March 2021
Figure 15: Employment distribution across sectoral categories (%), EU Member States, Q1 2020
Figure 16: Employment change, year on year (thousands), by sectoral category, total and furloughed workers, EU27, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Figure 17: Change in share of furloughed workers (percentage points), year on year, by sectoral category, EU Member States, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Figure 18: Employment change (thousands), year on year, across essential sectors at NACE Rev. 2 two-digit level, EU27, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Figure 19: Employment change (thousands), year on year, across mostly non-essential sectors at NACE Rev. 2 two-digit level, EU27, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Figure 20: Employment change (thousands), by employment contract and self-employment and sectoral category, EU27, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Figure 21: Employment change (%), by working time and employment contract, across sectoral categories, EU27, Q4 2019–Q4 2020
Figure 22: Employment change (thousands), year on year, by gender and sectoral category, EU27, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Figure 23: Change in weekly hours worked (%) and share of furloughed workers (percentage points), by gender across sectoral categories, EU27, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Figure 24: Relative employment change (%), by age group across sectoral categories, EU27, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Figure 25: Change in weekly hours worked (%), by age group across sectoral categories, EU27, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Figure 26: Declines in working hours by broad occupation (%), year on year, according to indicator, EU27, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Figure 27: Shifts in employment levels, share of workers on furlough and weekly hours worked, year on year, by occupational teleworkability, EU27, 2019–2020 (Q2 and Q4)
Figure 28: Employment shifts (%), by occupational teleworkability and detailed occupation, EU27, Q2 2019–Q2 2020
Figure 29: Proportion of employees usually working from home before (2019) and during (2020) the pandemic compared with the potential proportion of remote working (%), EU Member States
Learn more about the authors of this publication.
Eurofound recommends citing this publication in the following way.
Eurofound and European Commission Joint Research Centre (2021), What just happened? COVID-19 lockdowns and change in the labour market, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.
ISBN
978-92-897-2212-4
Number of pages
90
Reference no.
EF21040
ISBN
978-92-897-2212-4
Catalogue number
TJ-01-21-324-EN-N
DOI
10.2806/308937
Permalink
http://eurofound.link/ef21040
Activity
19 October 2021
